Migration: Major Shifts
Every type of real estate--housing, business, retail and office--is impacted by population movements across the U.S. and across its borders. In its most recent report, based on new Census numbers, the Brookings Institution says the past ten years saw the greatest migration slowdown since the end of World War II. Significant events were the housing bubble and the worst recession in more than half a century, as well as major storms and terrorist attacks.
The most recent Census numbers reflect population shifts through mid-2009. The most dramatic story is the decline of Florida as the nation’s migration magnet. Florida led all states in domestic in-migration in each of the first five years of the past decade, then falling down to 44th and 45th in each of the last two years. In that two-year period, Florida lost more migrants than it gained for the first time in recent history. Next in line was Nevada which showed a migration loss in 2008-9, while Arizona gained only 15,000 migrants in that period compared to 132,000 in 2004-5.
Population Gainers and Donors
The Brookings Report states that among the 17 Sunbelt states with the greatest migration gains in 2005-6, the last year of the housing bubble, all but four (Texas, Virginia, Washington and Colorado) registered the lowest migration gains in each of the next three years. Texas is the most prominent Sunbelt survivor of the last half of the decade. The state was the domestic migration leader in each of the past four years. The other side of the migration equation was states including New York and California that were major contributors to the Sunbelt surge. Much of New York’s loss of new migrants was Florida’s gain, while much of California’s loss meant gains to Arizona and Nevada.
The report notes that the new figures showed noticeable declines in immigration over the past three years, a result of the economic downturn that even caused some immigrants to return home. The 2008-9 net international migration figure of 855,000 was the lowest since 2002-3. The report says that when housing and job markets eventually recover, so will migration recover to levels and to destinations more in keeping with the recent past. But the 'boom and then bust’ decade of 2000-2010 will leave some scars, both economic and political, that will not soon be forgotten.
Real Estate Focus is provided by Somerset’s Real Estate Team for our clients and other interested persons upon request. Since technical information is presented in generalized fashion, no final conclusion on these topics should be made without further review. For additional information on the issues discussed, please contact Michael Fritton, CPA. Whether you are a building owner, building manager, real estate developer, real estate professional or an investor, we hope to provide you with timely information so you may be proactive in making your business decisions.
This article was written by and published herein with the permission from professionals of BDO Seidman, LLP. Andrew Dalecki is an audit associate in the Real Estate and Hospitality Services Practice in BDO’s New York office. Somerset is a member of the BDO Seidman Alliance, a nationwide association of independently owned accounting and consulting firms.
Somerset CPAs, P.C.
3925 River Crossing Parkway, Third Floor
Indianapolis, Indiana 46240
317.472.2200 • 800.469.7206 • FAX 317.208.1200
www.somersetcpas.com
info@somersetcpas.com
.jpg)